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ANALYSIS – Despite their imperative for strategic autonomy, Europeans are struggling to agree on the means necessary for a genuine common industrial defense policy.
Mistral anti-missile defense systems, modern armored vehicles, artillery munitions… The announcement did not make much noise, but the first funding from the European Union for five joint military equipment acquisition projects by 20 Member States, for a total of 300 million euros, made official in mid-November, represents a small step in the European defense sector, which is still in its infancy. It is one of the concrete results of the common response to the war waged by Russia in Ukraine for more than two and a half years.
Diego De Ojeda Garcia Pardo, head of the unit responsible for coordinating defence and security policy at the European Commission, painted a bleak picture of the situation at a conference of the European Policy Centre in Brussels on 21 November. ” We were ill-prepared before the aggression in Ukraine ; we are in an even more fragile situation now, because our stocks are empty. We have neither the money, nor the stocks, nor the production capacity. “
“The Russians can produce in six months everything that Germany has in stock”
For the first time, a defence commissioner has been appointed to Ursula von der Leyen’s new team: former Lithuanian Prime Minister Andrius Kubilius. To make an impression, he reminded the audience during his hearing before the deputies that ” the Russians can produce in six months everything that Germany has in stock “ . To meet this challenge facing Europe, Ursula von der Leyen has included a “white paper” on defence on the agenda for the first 100 days of her mandate, which should detail a global strategy and the necessary funding.
Before that, among the first legislative texts on the Parliament’s agenda is the European Defence Industry Programme (EDIP), already under discussion between the Member States. After the European Defence Fund (EDF), with a budget of €7.3 billion, which financed research and innovation in the military field, after munitions for Ukraine (Asap programme) and joint equipment purchases (EDIRPA), this time it is a question of laying the foundations of an industrial strategy for European defence. In detail, it will be necessary to determine which types of products (armaments, vehicles, munitions, etc.) and which companies will be eligible. Europe is far from being a single market for the defence industry, fragmented between players who have their national state as their customer and compete in exports.
So far, 80% of European military spending to help Ukraine has benefited non-European companies, mostly American. “From the moment there is European taxpayer money, there must be a European preference, “says Nathalie Loiseau, a centrist MEP and member of the European Parliament’s Security and Defence Subcommittee (which is about to become a separate committee, a sign of the times). France, Germany, Italy and Spain have just reached a compromise on a minimum threshold of 65% European content.
” For some Member States, European preference is unacceptable,” recalls François-Xavier Bellamy, LR leader in Strasbourg, rapporteur of the Edip program. Almost all European countries have chosen to base their defense on the United States, including Germany. The election of Donald Trump arouses immense concern among many of them; it could produce the opposite effect on the European defense industry to that which we think, by leading them to do everything not to lose the transatlantic link.
This is the priority. We must develop, produce and acquire more weapons systems together.
Boris Pistorius, German Minister of Defense
Pressure from the Americans
This quest for strategic autonomy is coming up against considerable pressure from the Americans to sell their weapons. The European Union intends not to finance simple assembly workshops on its soil for foreign technologies. Not to mention the Itar standards, these technical devices which make it possible to control and limit the use of American products from the United States.
The nerve of the war, the money that Europeans are prepared to spend on it will determine their credibility. ” This will require political courage from the Member States , “ believes Tania Latici, responsible for defence issues at the Diplomatic Service of the European Union. Already, the war in Ukraine has caused their investments to jump by 31% (to 326 billion euros this year) compared to 2021, or 1.9% of GDP, just below the 2% threshold required by NATO. Twenty-three member countries of the Alliance have reached this level in 2023, compared to three ten years ago. Some, such as Spain or Italy, are still far from it. However, there is now talk of the need to increase to 3%. ” Whether we spend 2 percent, 2.5 percent or 3 percent on defense in the future, we have to close the capability gaps,” German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said Monday at a meeting with his French, British, Polish and Italian counterparts . “That is the priority. We have to develop, produce and acquire more weapons systems together.”
Interest in joint financing is growing. Without consensus on the means. The Edip programme has an envelope of 1.5 billion euros. A drop in the ocean compared to the needs estimated at 500 billion over ten years by Ursula von der Leyen. Kaja Kallas , former Estonian Prime Minister who became High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy of the Union, had raised the idea of a joint loan of 100 billion, an initiative supported by France, but rejected outright by Germany or the Netherlands. The so-called “ frugal “ countries demand that the EU first use the funds at its disposal that have not been spent. Reallocations of envelopes from the post-Covid recovery or the cohesion policy could be proposed, but the subject is explosive.
The battle will be fought during the negotiations to draw up the EU’s next multi-annual budget for the period 2028 to 2035. The Member States refuse to contribute more. However, the bulk of its resources go to agriculture and the regions.” If we’re talking about 500 billion, it can only come through a loan , “ says François-Xavier Bellamy. Meeting in Warsaw last week, the foreign ministers of the five largest European countries said they were open to exploring ” innovative financing”, a coded language to avoid the term “eurobonds” (European bonds), which bristles Germany.” Things can move, including in Berlin,” Nathalie Loiseau wants to believe. “It’s no longer a total taboo. We have behind us thirty years of peace dividends on which we have fallen asleep.
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