Kelly HoThe speech by US Vice-President J.D. Vance in Munich in February marked a turning point in the United States’ role on the global stage. Washington’s disengagement from Europe is not a temporary adjustment but a structural shift that raises fundamental questions for both Europe and Asia.
We are entering a geopolitical landscape reminiscent of the era of the Three Kingdoms in Chinese history. Today, we are seeing three major blocs emerge: China and its allies (Russia, the Brics nations, and regional partners); a US focused on the Indo-Pacific, but with diminishing global credibility; and a potential third pole, consisting of Europe and Asia’s liberal democracies, struggling to define their role.
The risk for Europe and its Asian partners is becoming fragmented and losing strategic autonomy to the two dominant blocs. To counter this, they must forge a new path together.
As the US disengages from Europe, European nations are increasing their presence in Asia, while Asian allies like South Korea and Japan are deepening security ties with Europe. South Korea is supplying tanks and aircraft to Poland, and Japan has partnered with the United Kingdom and Italy to develop a next-generation fighter jet. This cross-engagement signals a growing alignment of interests.
However, new threats loom. North Korea’s military support for Russia in Ukraine underlines the emergence of a Moscow-Beijing-Pyongyang axis, which could reshape Europe’s security landscape. If China or India were to provide “neutral” peacekeeping forces in Ukraine, it would mark a seismic shift in global power dynamics.
Faced with an unpredictable America, Europe and Asia’s democracies must organise. Instead of waiting for Washington, a “Liberal European-Asian Democracies” alliance could emerge to coordinate strategies on security and defence, artificial intelligence and tech regulation, energy and supply chain security, climate and biodiversity protection.
Europe and Asia must seize this moment to shape the global balance rather than be passive spectators in a Sino-American rivalry. The time for bold leadership has come.
Arnaud Leveau, founder, Alta Strategies, and in-house expert, Asia Centre
Why Would China Trust The US?
I refer to “China-US trust issues threaten hope of successful diplomatic backchannel: Joerg Wuttke”
How can Chinese President Xi Jinping trust US President Donald Trump who, with his resolution to restrain China, will no longer be in office in a few years? That fact still somehow falls through the cracks.
It appears that restraining China can be achieved solely through imposing tariffs, and that means tightening belts as Chinese products offer the best value for money.
Trump’s policy is aimed at reviving the United States’ manufacturing facilities. It’s easy to perorate against unfair foreign competition and difficult to make locals work for peanuts.
We in Russia have had sanctions imposed on us for obvious reasons, instead of tariffs. Still we don’t make a pother and are quite happy to tap our natural resources, as are most countries.
Mergen Mongush, Moscow
Johanna Liander
Sophie Rosemont
Alexis Parker
Amandine Lhoste