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The United States needs India as a counterweight to China. That’s why Donald Trump shouldn’t demand too much from Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Trade relations and the Chinese threat.
Modi is one of the first world leaders Trump has invited as a guest since his re-election as president, a sign that Trump considers Modi important and wants something from India. Trump and Modi already have a well-deserved personal relationship. They pursue the same type of strong-leader populist and nationalist policies.
The meeting has a lot at stake. It provides indications of the direction in which the US-India relationship will develop during Trump’s second term. Trade is high on the agenda of the meeting. Trump has previously criticized India for exploiting trade relations. However, Trump has not criticized Modi as a person, writes foreign policy analyst Michael Kugelman .
The United States is India’s largest trading partner, with a trade surplus of over $45 billion in India’s favor. During his previous presidency, Trump criticized India’s high tariffs. Now, India has expressed its willingness to lower import tariffs on US products in several sectors.
Trump has demanded that trade with India be better balanced. He wants India to buy more American military equipment and energy, for example. India is the world’s largest buyer of military weapons. It has relied on inexpensive Russian weapons. American weapons systems have been expensive, and the United States has been reluctant to sell them to India because it has viewed the country’s relationship with Russia as suspicious, writes The New York Times .
Now this is likely to change, as India is expected to spend billions of dollars on modernizing its armed forces in the coming years, estimates the research institute CRS, a Congressional think tank. Trump has imposed tariffs on several countries since his re-election. The Trump-Modi meeting was overshadowed by Trump’s announcement that he plans to impose reciprocal tariffs on “any country” that imposes tariffs on imports from the United States.
According to the White House press secretary, Trump may announce his new tariff plan as early as Thursday before meeting Modi, reports the news channel CNBC. Modi wants no tariffs on Indian products. India exports electronics, medicines, jewelry, and clothing to the United States, for example.
Tariffs would be poison to Modi’s grand vision of making the country an industrial powerhouse. Tariffs that hinder exports to the United States could reduce the enthusiasm of large companies to manufacture their products in India.
India is attracting foreign companies to set up factories in the country. Most recently, on Tuesday, Modi urged French companies in Paris to invest in India.
India would also like to manufacture American weapons itself to develop its industry and create jobs. There are already examples of this, reports The New York Times. US conglomerate General Electric has said it plans to produce jet engines in partnership with India, while former President Joe Biden’s administration announced in its closing minutes that India would become a manufacturer of Stryker combat vehicles.
Modi may also meet with billionaire Elon Musk, the head of electric car company Tesla, in the United States . Having a Tesla factory in India would be a good idea for Modi. Trump and Modi may advance joint China efforts and trade issues on Thursday, but they will likely take more time.
Trump will likely be pleased that India has announced that it will take back its citizens who have illegally settled in the United States. Last week, a repatriation flight brought back over a hundred undocumented Indians from the United States.
Maintaining good relations between leaders is essential so that India can avoid potential import tariffs from the United States and the countries can deepen defense cooperation, says Srujan Palkan, a researcher at the think tank The Atlantic Council .
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