Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi visits the site of a land bridge and railway project in Azerbaijan shortly before his death on May 19 Source: Bloomberg
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Tehran
Expectations that new presidential elections will be held within 50 days, with the Vice President temporarily assuming power
What is the difference between the Supreme Leader and the President?
The Supreme Leader, also known as the “Guardian of the Jurist” among Shiites, is the absolute ruler of Iran responsible for making all major decisions related to the state. The position of Supreme Leader was created after the Islamic Revolution in 1979, and he is also considered the head of state and supreme commander of the armed forces.
Only men are allowed to hold this position. The teachings of the Shiite doctrine applied in Iran require that the position must be given to a high-ranking Shiite cleric, who must have reached at least the rank of “Ayatollah” – although there is disagreement over whether Khamenei himself has reached this rank.
At the same time, the president in Iran is responsible for managing executive power, and is chosen through a vetted electoral process every four years. The president controls the government and, depending on that person’s political background and power, can have enormous influence over the country’s politics and economy.
What are the procedures followed in this case?
The Iranian constitution stipulates that upon the death of the president, the first vice president assumes temporary leadership of the country. He will hold new presidential elections within 50 days in cooperation with the head of the judiciary and the speaker of parliament.
In this case, it seems certain that the interim leader will be Mohammad Mokhber, a former IRGC officer and head of an endowment that looks after the assets of the Islamic Republic.
In an apparent attempt to allay any public concern about the stability of governance, Khamenei addressed Raisi’s absence on Sunday evening – even before his death was confirmed – and said no one should expect any unrest in how the country is run.
What is the impact of Raisi’s death on Iran and the region?
One of the big questions raised by Raisi’s death is how his absence is likely to affect the battle over who will succeed Khamenei as supreme leader. This is an issue that concerns academics, officials, and analysts as Khamenei grows older.
Raisi’s death may also have consequences for Iran’s relationship with the rest of the region. Iran supports a number of groups that are fighting by proxy. The Revolutionary Guards will also seek to ensure that Iran’s enemies do not exploit the moment of unrest. Raisi also oversaw a period of warmer relations with the Arab Gulf states. While this policy is likely to continue, any new leader may have different priorities.
Who is next in line to be Supreme Leader?
Given Iran’s highly complex and opaque political structure, there are almost no official or public places where questions about who will be Khamenei’s replacement are raised openly. But analysts, officials and academics close to the political establishment have said for some time Raisi aspired and Mojtaba (Khamenei’s son) were the top contenders for the position.
Raisi’s death means that Mojtaba will now be seen as having a clear path to the top job, but this will also be a risky appointment. Iran has a fraught legacy of succession, and the leaders of the 1979 Islamic Revolution strongly opposed any kind of regime resembling the monarchy they overthrew.
Mujtaba’s popularity has never been put to the test as he does not hold any government position and does not appear in public much. The supreme leader needs to at least appear to have real support from the masses who support the current theocracy if he is to gain any kind of legitimacy.
Tehrangeles/Los Angeles Times
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