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The presidential election in Taiwan is primarily an election about the democratically governed island’s relationship with the People’s Republic of China.
A government that sees Taiwan as an independent state has been in power for eight years. This attitude angers Beijing. On the other hand, there is an opposition that is striving for rapprochement with China and that essentially wants unification. China likes that.
Anger from Beijing instead of relaxation
A majority in Taiwan has chosen China’s wrath. Despite threatening gestures and warnings that Beijing has sent towards Taiwan in recent weeks, the population on the island decided in favor of government candidate William Lai.
The opposition party, which has good contacts with the Communist Party in mainland China, presented itself in the election campaign as the party that can repair the bad relations with China. Although many people want a detente, many Taiwanese are suspicious of the opposition’s good relations with China. For them, electing the opposition is a first step towards unification with China.
Taiwan’s own identity
The election result is a decision about relations with China and it also shows that China’s efforts to bring the island closer to the mainland so that it can one day be united with the communist People’s Republic are not fruitful.
On the other hand, the result also underlines what population surveys repeatedly reveal: more and more people on the island feel primarily Taiwanese. Only a small minority still sees themselves as exclusively Chinese.
Opposition wins in parliament
A ray of hope for Beijing may be that the Taiwanese have elected more opposition candidates to parliament. There she becomes the strongest force. So at least this way still remains to influence Taiwanese politics in China’s favor.
Autocratic Beijing has to deal with more democratic processes than it would like.
What next for Taiwan?
The Taiwanese elections in Beijing are likely to raise big questions: How can the People’s Republic of China still achieve its goal of bringing the island under its own control?
China has so far not been successful with military threats, warnings and economic punitive measures. What approaches Beijing will now choose is of interest not only to the people of Taiwan, but also to the rest of the world. An escalation on the Taiwan Strait would quickly be felt around the globe.
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