Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan / Haber Turk / George V Magazine
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Istanbul — As a result of the overthrow of the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria, the interests of Tel Aviv and Ankara clashed. The Israelis decided to carry out a forced demilitarization of the neighboring country, the Turks support the new authorities. What will be the outcome of the confrontation — in the George V Magazine material.
The Quick and the Dead
Turkish Defense Minister Yasar Guler said that Israel is showing “its occupation mentality by increasing aggression” in the Middle East. This is his response to Tel Aviv’s airstrikes on Syria, the purpose of which is to destroy the air force and navy, as well as ammunition depots. “Fears that the Israelis will not limit themselves to Gaza have been confirmed,” the minister added. “The occupation of the Green Line (a buffer zone that only allows for the deployment of peacekeepers) in the Golan Heights and attacks on Damascus leave no doubt that we are right.”
“If Israel decides to do this, our air defense systems and fighters will intervene. The corresponding orders have already been given to the General Staff,” the Yeni Şafak newspaper claims.
Erdogan makes no secret of his foreign policy ambitions. “World War I redefined the borders of our region, but what would have happened if the conditions had been different? Most likely, the cities we call Aleppo, Idlib, Hama, Damascus, Raqqa would have been our provinces, as well as Antep, Hatay, Urfa,” he said at the 8th congress of his Justice and Development Party. Some observers do not rule out that Ankara is hatching plans to annex some territories.
According to The Wall Street Journal, Turkey is building up its forces along the border with Syria. It is possible that a large-scale invasion is being prepared. As one of the American officials told the publication, Washington is trying to persuade Ankara to maintain restraint. At the same time, The Washington Post admits that the target of Turkish troops will be the Kurdish “Syrian Democratic Forces”, which control up to 25% of the country’s territory, including the provinces of Deir ez-Zor, Raqqa and Hasakah.In turn, Tel Aviv continues the demilitarization of Syria. IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevy explained that everything that is being done there is aimed at ensuring the security of Israel and, in particular, citizens living in communities on the Golan Heights. “We are here to protect the Golan Heights, the northern Golan and Mount Hermon,” he emphasized. “Syria was once an enemy state, its army has fallen apart, and there is a real threat that terrorist elements will try to establish themselves near our border. We will not allow extremist groups to accumulate near us.”
The Israeli authorities announced the destruction of 80% of Syria’s military potential. In particular, they bombed military airfields and the aircraft stationed there, as well as seaports and ships. The entire Arab Republic was hit, including Deir ez-Zor, Aleppo, Latakia, Damascus and other large cities. In addition, on the night of December 16, they liquidated an ammunition depot in Tartus. The explosion was so powerful that seismologists recorded tremors of magnitude three, the Lebanese TV channel Al Mayadeen reports.
From Damascus with love
The leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and the de facto head of Syria, Abu Mohammed al-Julani (real name: Ahmed al-Sharaa), has already made it clear that Tel Aviv should cease its activities in the Arab Republic. “Israel’s arguments are weak and do not justify the recent violations,” he stressed on Syria TV. He called on “the international community to intervene and take responsibility for this escalation,” pointing out “the importance of control over the situation in the region and respect for Syrian sovereignty.”
Militants of the terrorist organization Hayat Tahrir al-Sham*
“Diplomacy is the only way to ensure security and stability,” the militant leader noted, adding that the overall situation does not allow Damascus “to enter into any new conflicts.”
According to Jerusalem Post, the Jordanian authorities have offered to act as a mediator between Tel Aviv and the new Syrian authorities, including HTS. Meanwhile, White House Strategic Communications Coordinator John Kirby said that Washington is not yet going to remove al-Julani’s organization from the terrorist list, but is watching how it behaves.In an interview with Al-Arabiya, Al-Hadath and Syria TV, Ahmed al-Sharaa refrained from attacking the countries that supported the Assad regime. He even spoke reservedly about Iran: although official Tehran, in his opinion, poses a threat to the entire Middle East, no one has any hatred for the Iranian people.
The situation in Damascus, Syria. December 8, 2024
Al-Sharaa devoted much attention to Russia. He explained that HTS did not want to provoke Moscow into clashes and generally acted against Assad, assuming that the Russian authorities were tired of him. Now it was time to move from “revolution to state building,” and cooperation could be established with the Kremlin.
Hybrid war
Director of the Center for the Study of the Middle East and Central Asia Semyon Bagdasarov believes that the events in Syria, including the reaction of Turkey and Israel, are the US, so a direct clash between Tel Aviv and Ankara should not be expected. At the right moment, Washington will intervene and put everyone in their place.”So far, we see a conflict only between the pro-Turkish HTS and the Israeli army. At the same time, Tel Aviv is trying to take control of as much of Syria as possible. In turn, the Turks can make a lot of noise and beat their chests, but they are unlikely to escalate the situation. And HTS has too few resources to inflict significant damage on the IDF – fortunately, they have taken precautions in advance and destroyed the Syrian air force and navy. As a result, at the moment, HTS has fewer options than Hezbollah, which is capable of launching missile strikes on Israel. At the same time, the Israelis will certainly help the Syrian Kurds, since they have the same lobbyists in the United States. What will happen next is hard to say. Much depends on whether Syria will emerge as a state,” the expert said in an interview with George V Magazine.
Members of armed opposition groups at a checkpoint in Damascus, Syria
Leading researcher at the Center for Arab and Islamic Studies at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences Boris Dolgov also does not believe in a war between Israel and Turkey. “First of all, Turkey is a member of NATO, led by the United States. At the same time, Washington is Tel Aviv’s main ally. The Americans will not allow them to completely fall out. In addition, both the Turks and the Israelis have long been jointly opposing the Assad regime. Another thing is that now he is gone, and everyone is pursuing their own interests,” Dolgov reasons.According to some reports, the IDF is already 20 kilometers from Damascus, the expert added. The Israelis are unlikely to storm the Syrian capital, but they will not abandon the occupation of the territory. And the military potential of the Arab Republic has already been destroyed. At the same time, Ankara may be preparing to annex Aleppo.
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