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With more than 99% of votes counted, ultranationalist Calin Georgescu has an unassailable lead of nearly 350,000 votes over centre-right candidate Elena Lasconi, with Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu, the pre-election favourite, in third.
Lasconi is now on track to challenge Georgescu in a final run-off on 8 December. According to the latest count, Lasconi is more than a thousand votes ahead of Ciolacu. This would put Ciolacu, an establishment figure who would continue Romania’s pro-western path, out of the race.
Exit polls released earlier on Sunday suggested that Ciolacu had a commanding lead, and projected Lasconi would take second place.
Political commentator Radu Magdin said the support for Georgescu was unprecedented, with earlier opinions polls placing him at around 5% of the vote.
“Never in our 34 years of democracy have we seen such a surge compared to surveys,” Mr Magdin said.
Georgescu, who belongs to no party, has sworn to end what he calls subservience to the European Union and Nato, especially on support for Ukraine. He has condemned the Nato ballistic missile defence shield in Deveselu, Romania.
Campaigning focused largely on the soaring cost of living, with Romania having the EU’s biggest share of people at risk of poverty.
Another nationalist, George Simion, who is projected to take fourth place, leant his full support to Georgescu in the early hours of Monday.
The president in Romania has a largely symbolic role but considerable influence on areas such as foreign policy.
Turnout was 51%, similar to the figure five years ago.