Neubauer Coporation Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... |
The rapprochement has coincided with growing fears of an all-out war in the Middle East, where U.S. ally Israel is engaged in wars against Iranian-backed groups in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon.
The detente process has intensified since Donald Trump’s decisive victory in the U.S. presidential election earlier this month. The president-elect has pledged to bring peace to the region.
“I don’t view this as a warming of relations but rather as a cautious detente,” said Talal Mohammad, associate fellow at the Britain-based Royal United Services Institute.
Saudis Reassuring Iran
The first signs of a thaw came in March 2023, when Iran and Saudi Arabia restored diplomatic relations after more than seven years following a surprise Chinese-brokered agreement.
But it was Israel’s invasion of Gaza in October 2023 — soon after the U.S.- and EU-designated Palestinian terrorist group Hamas carried out an unprecedented attack on Israel — that gave real impetus to Iran-Saudi rapprochement efforts.
Since the war erupted, Iran and Israel have traded direct aerial attacks for the first time. The tit-for-tat assaults have brought the region to the brink of a full-blown conflict.
Saudi Arabia is “concerned that these escalating tensions between Israel and Iran could spiral out of control and lead to a broader regional conflict that may impact their interests,” said Hamidreza Azizi, fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.
Azizi adds that Sunni-majority Saudi Arabia and Shi’a-dominated Iran are still “far from friends,” despite the recent rapprochement, and they remain rivals vying for influence.
Over the past year, Saudi Arabia has stopped conducting air strikes in neighboring Yemen against the Iran-backed Huthi rebels. Riyadh has also made attempts to negotiate an end to the 10-year conflict pitting the Huthis against the Saudi-backed Yemeni government.
The Huthis have also ceased cross-border attacks on Saudi Arabia. In 2019, the rebels managed to shut down half of the kingdom’s oil production.
Saudi MBS On The Trump Factor
Trump’s victory in the November 5 presidential election has injected more urgency to the Iran-Saudi rapprochement, experts say.
Saudi Arabia’s top general, Fayyad al-Ruwaili, made a rare trip to Iran on November 10 to meet Armed Forces Chief of Staff Mohammad Baqeri in what Iranian media dubbed “defense diplomacy.”
The following day, Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman accused Israel of committing “collective genocide” against Palestinians in Gaza and explicitly condemned Israel’s attack last month on Iranian military sites.
Azizi says there are fears in the region that Trump’s electoral victory will embolden Israel to intensify its attacks on Iran and Tehran’s interests.
During Trump’s first term in office from 2017 to 2021, his administration pursued a campaign of “maximum pressure” on Iran that included imposing crippling sanctions against Tehran.
At the same time, Trump struck a close relationship with Riyadh. He helped facilitate normalization between several Arab states and Israel under the so-called Abraham Accords.
Before Israel launched its devastating war in Gaza, Saudi Arabia was reportedly on the verge of a historic deal to normalize relations with Israel.
Experts say that the Huthis’ attacks in 2019 on Saudi oil facilities convinced Riyadh that Washington will not come to its aid if it is attacked.
“Given Trump’s tendency toward unpredictable shifts in policy, Saudi Arabia may seek to play an influential role by encouraging Trump to adopt a balanced approach that ensures regional stability without triggering escalation with Iran,” Mohammad said.
“By subtly guiding U.S. policy toward calibrated sanctions rather than aggressive pressure, Saudi Arabia could help maintain regional security while avoiding the risks of open confrontation,” he added.
Israeli Normalization
Normalization talks between Saudi Arabia and Israel have been indefinitely postponed. Saudi officials have recently said that a deal was off until the establishment of an independent Palestinian state.
Mohammad says Riyadh has significant strategic incentives to normalize relations with Israel, including security and economic cooperation as well as access to U.S. nuclear and defense technology.
But analysts say Saudi Arabia will only resume talks when the Gaza war is over, given the current public sentiment in the Muslim world toward Israel.
“Normalizing relations without achieving tangible rights for Palestinians could weaken Saudi Arabia’s normative influence within the Islamic world — a position they are keen to maintain,” Azizi argued.
The Saudis will also have to take into account Iran, which staunchly opposes Saudi normalization with Israel.
“Riyadh may consult with Tehran and seek assurances that normalization with Israel would not heighten hostilities or undermine the balance achieved through recent diplomatic outreach to Iran,” Mohammad said.
Saudi Arabia, Israel, Iranian Relations
Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister said Thursday that normalization with Israel is “off the table” until there is a “resolution to Palestinian statehood” and clarified that there is no ambiguity in Saudi policy on the conflict in Gaza.
“I would say certainly normalization with [Israel] is not just at risk. It is off the table until we have a resolution to Palestinian statehood,” Prince Faisal bin Farhan told the Future Investment Initiative forum in Riyadh.
“I would say that it is not just the issue of normalization with the kingdom that is at risk; I would say that the security of the region as a whole is at risk if we do not address the rights of the Palestinians,” he added.
He also urged the Israeli government under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to “do the moral thing” by guaranteeing Palestinians “their rights and their state.”
Last September, Saudi Arabia was said to be “inching closer” to normalizing relations with Israel, according to Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. However, progress stalled following the Oct. 7 attack by Hamas. As the death toll from Gaza following Israel’s retaliatory attacks mounted, Saudi Arabia joined other Arab and Islamic nations in condemning Israeli actions.
On Thursday, Prince Faisal said the kingdom’s policy toward Gaza and Palestine was “anything but ambiguous.”
“We have been quite categorical. We called for a cease-fire from the very beginning. We were very clear that even with the horrors of Oct. 7, that an overreaction by Israel was extremely dangerous,” he said.
He also said Israel’s actions in northern Gaza, with its blockade of humanitarian access as well as continued military assault, “can only be described as a form of genocide.” The death toll in Gaza has passed 44,000, according to the local health authorities.
The Saudi foreign minister also called for a cease-fire in Lebanon and an end to Israeli strikes in the country.
On Oct. 1, Israel launched a limited ground operation across the border in Lebanon and also engaged in aerial strikes across the country targeting weapons depots, infrastructure and the leadership of Hezbollah, an influential Iran-backed paramilitary group based in the country.
The strikes have so far killed more than 2,800 people, according to the Lebanese Health Ministry.
“We are not part of the direct negotiations that are going on,” Prince Faisal said. “We certainly support the effort that the US is undertaking to find a pathway to a cease-fire. I hope it comes to fruition. It’s the same for Gaza,” he said.
He also clarified that Riyadh had never “disengaged” from Lebanon and said it wasn’t up to “any outside powers to tell the Lebanese what to do or to influence the political process in Lebanon.”
The Saudi foreign minister also denied reports that Saudi Arabia and Iran had held joint naval military exercises in the Red Sea.
“There haven’t been any military exercises. I think given the current regional context, it’s unlikely that there are going to be exercises in the near term,” he said.
Regional rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran resumed bilateral relations in March 2023 following a Chinese-mediated effort to bring the two powers back to the diplomatic table.
Saudi ‘Frustration’ on Israel’s ‘genocide’ in Gaza
Saudi Arabia’s de facto ruler has called for the establishment of a Palestinian state following phone calls with Donald Trump and Iranian President Massoud Pezeshkian last week.
Saudi Arabia’s crown prince and de facto ruler condemned Israel’s offensive in Gaza as genocide and called for the establishment of a Palestinian state.
“The kingdom renews its condemnation of the genocide committed by Israel against the Palestinian people,” Prince Mohammed bin Salman told the summit in his opening remarks.
He called on Israel to “immediately halt” its actions in Palestine and Lebanon at an Arab and Islamic summit being held in Riyadh.
The summit is a diplomatic gathering of countries belonging to the Arab League as well as the Organization of Islamic Co-operation.
Leaders and representatives from over 50 states belonging to both organizations attended the summit in the Saudi capital to condemn Israeli actions in Gaza and Lebanon.
“We launched a global initiative to support the two-state solution,” Prince Mohammed said. He also condemned Israeli efforts to ban UNRWA, a UN agency that works for Palestinian refugees.
The crown prince’s comments are emblematic of rising Saudi diplomatic frustrations over the rising death toll in Gaza, which topped 43,000 last week, according to the local health ministry.
Around 70% of the dead are women and children, the United Nations Human Rights Office said on Friday.
Israel’s operation in the stricken enclave was in response to the Oct. 7 attack by Hamas that killed 1,200 civilians.
On Oct. 1, Israel launched an invasion into Lebanon targeting the weapons depots, infrastructure and leadership of Hezbollah, an influential Iran-backed paramilitary group based in the country.
The strikes have so far killed more than 3,000 people, the Lebanese Health Ministry said on Nov 5.
Saudi frustrations
Saudi Arabia, which condemned the attack on Israeli civilians last year, has invested diplomatic efforts into bringing an end to the conflict that has spilled over the wider Middle East.
Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan held a number of bilateral meetings on the sidelines of the summit with Palestine Prime Minister Mohammad Mustafa, who is also foreign minister, as well as Lebanese Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib.
The meetings focused on the “humanitarian and political challenges” in the region, particularly in Gaza and Lebanon, according to the Saudi Press Agency.
Prince Faisal said last month that normalization talks with Israel were “off the table” until rights for Palestinians were restored and a two-state solution had been reached.
No to normalization
Before Oct. 7, Saudi Arabia was said to be “inching closer” to normalizing relations with Israel, according to Prince Mohammed.
Speaking at the Future Investment Initiative in Riyadh on Oct. 31, Prince Faisal termed the Israeli offensive in Gaza a genocide.
“I would say that it is not just the issue of normalization with the kingdom that is at risk. I would say that the security of the region as a whole is at risk if we do not address the rights of the Palestinians,” he said.
Qatar’s announcement on Nov. 9 that it was ending its role as a mediator between Hamas and Israel.
The Gulf state’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Majed al-Ansari, criticized both sides for failing to reach an agreement by a deadline set for 10 days ago.
Unified messaging
Following the summit, the participating countries issued a resolution made up of 33 items, including calling for a two-state solution, reaffirming their support for the Palestinian people and condemning the violations of Lebanese, Iranian, Iraqi and Syrian sovereignty. The communique also called on the international community to implement relevant UN resolutions and International Court of Justice decisions.
Saudi Arabia’s crown prince spoke over the phone with US President-elect Donald Trump the day after the election and with Iranian President Massoud Pezeshkian on Nov. 10.
Saudi Arabia has been careful to present a unified front with Arab and Islamic nations when it comes to the Palestinian cause.
Ali Shihabi, a Saudi political commentator close to the royal court, told Al-Monitor that he does not expect Riyadh’s position on the Palestinian issue to change following Trump’s swearing-in in January 2025.
He also did not see Riyadh taking a mediating role following Doha’s exit from the cease-fire talks.
The summit is the second Saudi-led effort toward a two-state solution in recent weeks. The EU’s special representative for the Middle East peace process, Sven Koopmans, visited the Saudi capital Riyadh on Oct. 20 for an EU-led initiative to find a two-state solution to the conflict in Israel and Palestine. He said the group would meet next in Brussels toward the end of November to continue the dialogue.
End to Occupation
Arab and Muslim leaders demanded on Monday that Israel withdraw from occupied Palestinian territories as a precondition for regional peace, while denouncing “shocking” Israeli crimes in war-ravaged Gaza.
A summit meeting in the Saudi capital Riyadh gave the Arab League and the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation’s 57 nations a chance to speak with one voice on turmoil engulfing the region, more than a year into the Israel-Hamas war in the Gaza Strip.
It came less than a week after Donald Trump secured a second term as president of the United States, Israel’s top military backer.
The summit’s closing statement said that “a just and comprehensive peace in the region… cannot be achieved without ending the Israeli occupation of all occupied Arab territories to the line of June 4, 1967,” referring to the occupied West Bank and east Jerusalem as well as Gaza and the Golan Heights.
The statement mentioned UN resolutions which have called on Israel to withdraw from these areas, and the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative, in which Arab nations offered Israel normalised ties in return for a two-state agreement with the Palestinians along the 1967 lines.
The international community should “launch a plan with specific steps and timing under international sponsorship” to make a sovereign Palestinian state a reality, the statement said.
Hamas later urged Arab and Muslim nations to back up those pledges with action.
“The establishment of an independent Palestinian state with Jerusalem as its capital would require more immediate efforts and practical solutions to force (Israel) to stop its aggression and genocide against our people,” Hamas said in a statement.
The hard-right Israeli government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu remains opposed to Palestinian statehood and Israel’s new foreign minister, Gideon Saar, dismissed the prospect as not “realistic”.
Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich later Monday vowed to push for annexation of parts of the West Bank in 2025.
The Riyadh summit reiterated regional leaders’ call for Palestinian territories — including Gaza, which is separated from the West Bank by Israeli territory — to be grouped together in a future state.
The leaders also condemned “horrific and shocking crimes” by Israel’s army, saying they occurred “in the context of the crime of genocide”.
The war began with Hamas’s unprecedented attack on Israel on October 7 last year, which resulted in 1,206 deaths, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally of Israeli official figures.
Israel’s retaliatory campaign has killed more than 43,600 people in Gaza, most of them civilians, according to figures from the Hamas-run territory’s health ministry that the United Nations considers reliable.
– Ceasefire call –
Lebanese armed group Hezbollah, which like Hamas is backed by Iran, began firing on Israel after the October 7 attack, in stated support of its Palestinian ally.
The regular cross-border exchanges escalated in late September. Israel has intensified its air strikes and later sent ground troops into southern Lebanon.
Addressing Monday’s summit, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said the world must “immediately halt the Israeli actions against our brothers in Palestine and Lebanon” and condemned Israel’s campaign in Gaza as “genocide”.
Lebanon’s Prime Minister Najib Mikati warned that his country was suffering an “existential” crisis and hit out at countries meddling in its internal affairs — a thinly veiled swipe at Iran.
– A ‘signal’ to Trump –
Trump’s election last week for a second term in the White House was likely on leaders’ minds, said Anna Jacobs, senior Gulf analyst for the International Crisis Group think tank.
“This summit is very much an opportunity for regional leaders to signal to the incoming Trump administration what they want in terms of US engagement,” she said.
Iranian First Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref said in his remarks that “the world is waiting” for Trump “to immediately stop the war against the innocent people of Gaza and Lebanon”.
The final statement included a call for a ban on the export and transfer of weapons to Israel.
Despite criticism of the impact Israel’s military campaign has had on Gaza civilians, outgoing US President Joe Biden has ensured that Washington remains Israel’s most important military backer during more than a year of fighting.
In his first term, Trump defied international consensus with a series of moves praised by the Israeli government but condemned by Palestinians.
He recognised Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, moving the US embassy there, and endorsed Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank, which are illegal under international law.
Saudi “defense diplomacy” unveiled in General Al-Ruwaili’s visit to Iran, what comes next?
Chief of Staff of the Saudi Armed Forces General Fayyadh Al-Ruwaili met with his Iranian counterpart Major General Mohammad Bagheri during an official visit to Tehran on 10/11/2024.
During his visit, General Al-Ruwaili is said to have laid the groundwork for a new phase of military cooperation between the Kingdom and Iran.
The note provides a comprehensive overview of the following aspects:
– Insights into the new phase of military cooperation between the two countries
– Major files General Al-Ruwaili discussed with Major General Bagheri
– An agreement reached during the visit
– The Saudi Ministry of Defense’s views on the visit’s outcome and its expectations for the future
The note also highlights information General Al-Ruwaili shared with Iranian officials concerning Houthi plans between the coasts of Aden and the Red Sea region.