|
Neubauer Artists LLC Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... |
- Russia is accelerating the development of its Rassvet satellite network to monitor Ukraine.
- Ukrainian military intelligence warns that Moscow could achieve complete surveillance by 2027.
- The EU is imposing sanctions to slow Russia’s military-industrial progress.
Russia is accelerating the development of its own satellite network, Rassvet (Russian for “Dawn”), at a significantly faster pace than originally planned. Ukrainian military intelligence warns that if the expansion continues at the current rate, Moscow could achieve complete, round-the-clock surveillance of Ukraine by mid-2027.
“Bureau 1440 is launching the satellites significantly faster than originally planned,” Major General Vadym Skibitsky, deputy head of the Ukrainian military intelligence service, told the portal “RBC-Ukraine”.
Bureau 1440 was founded in 2020 as a project of the Russian mobile phone giant MegaFon. The name refers to the 1440 orbits of the Earth completed by the Soviet Sputnik 1 in 1957.
Putin’s response to Musk’s Starlink blockade
The accelerated expansion is a direct response to the blockade by SpaceX. Until February 2026, Russian armed forces used Starlink terminals without authorization for their warfare. When Elon Musk’s space company finally cut off access , it severely disrupted command structures.
Moscow urgently needs an alternative. Satellite communication is indispensable when attacks destroy or disrupt terrestrial networks – for example, for drone operations with live video transmission or military communications.
According to Serhiy Beskrestnov, an advisor to the Ukrainian president, up to 40 Rassvet satellites are currently in orbit. He stated that twelve satellites from the first series have reached their operational orbit at an altitude of 800 kilometers – above the Starlink satellites.
These already allow for one or two communication windows per day when they fly over Ukraine. The duration ranges from ten minutes to one and a half hours. The second batch is still ascending to its final orbit.
Bureau 1440 launched its first three test satellites in June 2023, followed a year later by three more for laser communication tests. In March 2026, the company launched its first 16 operational satellites into space, with a second group launched at the end of July.
Putin’s ambitious satellite plans
President Vladimir Putin regularly praises the system. He says it is in no way inferior to Starlink and can even surpass it in some areas. “It takes time, but it’s been created, it works,” Putin said in mid-June regarding the issue of scaling.
The gap is enormous, however: Starlink already operates over 10,800 satellites, and SpaceX launches an average of two dozen new satellites every three days. Rassvet has just 40 satellites in orbit. Experts believe the network would need 200 to 250 satellites for stable coverage of Russia and Ukraine.
According to Ukrainian intelligence, Moscow is initially planning 292 satellites by 2027. Bureau 1440 speaks of 730 satellites by 2030 and over 900 by 2035. However, industry experts doubt that Russia can achieve these numbers with its own launch vehicles.
Europe is trying to slow its expansion. The 21st EU sanctions package of July 23rd targets the Russian military-industrial complex – including companies in the fields of military technology, electronics and communications.
The measures are intended to restrict Russia’s ability to develop systems with dual-use potential for both civilian and military purposes. This applies particularly to drone control technologies. Whether the sanctions will significantly slow this development remains to be seen.