GEORGE V MAGAZINE / AFP
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Romania’s ruling centre-left party came first in parliamentary elections, according to preliminary results, one week after the surprise victory of a far-right, anti-NATO presidential candidate in the first-round ballot.
With 96.4% of votes counted, the ruling Social Democratic party (PSD) had 22.5% of the votes to the far-right nationalist Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) on 17.7%. The National Liberal Party (PNL) garnered 13.6% and the conservative Save Romania Union (USR) 11.9%.
While AUR more than doubled its previous parliamentary election result of 8.5% on 1 December, a couple of other far-right parties – Young People (POT) and SOS Romania – also looked set to clear the 5% threshold required to enter the House.
What this means is that, on the 2nd of 3 consecutive election weekends, around 30% of the votes cast by Romanians were for hyper-nationalist parties, after the shock victory of far-right, Kremlin-backed newcomer Calin Georgescu 7 days earlier.
Turnout was high, as Georgescu’s win appeared to have motivated supporters of traditional parties to go out and vote, and the overall results suggest that a PSD-led pro-EU coalition could now form Romania’s next government, albeit with some backstairs intrigue required in the coming weeks.
The Romanian presidency gives the head of state control over defence spending, and Sunday’s result threatens the country’s staunchly pro-Ukraine stance. Political observers called the result Romania’s “worst case scenario”, which gives voters a stark choice in the second, run-off, round due on 8 December.
Liberal pips PM to make second round
Georgescu’s opponent in the second round is likely to be liberal, centre-right Elena Lasconi of the Save Romania Union USR (RE), who very narrowly beat Romanian Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu of the Social Democrats (PSD) into third place. However, both were on 19.2%, as PSD support fell by over 3 percentage points (pp) and Elena Lasconi’s RE was up 4 pp, with 2.5% of the votes still uncounted.
Far-right populist George Simion of the Alliance for the Unity of Romanians (AUR), of which Georgescu was a member until 2022, meanwhile won 13.9%, reflecting a widespread uptick in support for nationalist candidates.
Other notable performances include UDMR’s Hunor Kelemen at 4.5% (+1 pp) and several new independent candidates, including Mircea Geoana (6.3%) and Cristian Diaconescu (3.1%).
The candidate of the National Liberal Party (PNL) Nicolae Ciuca plummeted to 8.8% (-29 pp), on a catastrophic night for the Christian conservatives.
Struggling with soaring prices, voters move rightwards
Campaigns predominantly focused on economic grievances, including Romania’s soaring cost of living – the country currently has the highest inflation in the EU – and high poverty rate, which the EU has identified as having the bloc’s largest percentage of “at-risk” populations.
Georgescu’s campaign used the Chinese social media platform TikTok to bypass traditional media and connect with voters frustrated with the Romanian political establishment but was dogged by accusations of Russian election interference.
The popularity of Georgescu and Simion highlights the growing popularity of “sovereignist” ideologies that could threaten Romania’s pro-Western alignment and democratic values. The result also reflects a broader European trend of political polarisation and dissatisfaction with mainstream politics, and Romania’s geopolitical trajectory now hangs in the balance.
Romania shares a 400-mile border with Ukraine and since Russia launched its full-scale land war in 2022, it has enabled the export of millions of tons of grain through the port of Constanta and provided military aid including a Patriot air defence system. However, Georgescu, a Romanian national committee of the United Nations Environment Programme representative from 1999-2012, has called NATO’s ballistic missile defence shield in Deveselu, south Romania, a “diplomatic disgrace”.
Threat to Romania’s pro-NATO, US stance
Georgescu’s promised to end Romania’s “subservience” to the EU and NATO—especially regarding support for Ukraine and NATO’s missile defence system— now represent a potential realignment of Romania’s foreign policy. As such, the result jeopardises the country’s reputation as a stable, pro-Western democracy and risks alienating international partners and deterring investors. Next month’s second election round could deepen that divide.
On Sunday evening Georgescu said: “the rich of the system, today, in Romania, have become poorer, and the people, the poor Romanian people, have enriched themselves from this point of view. We have a duty to rebuild Romania and that is the most important.” Calling “the family, the backbone of the Romanian society” Georgescu looked forward to the second round, saying “We were many to vote and will also be many to vote in the second round.”
Lasconi wrote on Facebook on Monday morning: “To all those who voted for me, thank you for your mobilisation and trust. Your vote was not for me, but for the future of you and your loved ones, for whom I promise to do my best.”
Crisis for pollsters
The blame game began as soon as Sunday’s election results rolled in; with Romania’s press, political institutions, and intelligence services accused of inflating Georgescu’s candidacy to weaken Simion, and failing to address Russian election meddling, allowing him to ascend unchecked.
The result also exposed the weakness of exit polls, which had projected Ciolacu as the frontrunner, followed by Lasconi. Voter turnout was consistent with the previous election at 51%.
Struggling with soaring prices, voters move rightwards
Campaigns predominantly focused on economic grievances, including Romania’s soaring cost of living – the country currently has the highest inflation in the EU – and high poverty rate, which the EU has identified as having the bloc’s largest percentage of “at-risk” populations.
Georgescu’s campaign used the Chinese social media platform TikTok to bypass traditional media and connect with voters frustrated with the Romanian political establishment but was dogged by accusations of Russian election interference.
The popularity of Georgescu and Simion highlights the growing popularity of “sovereignist” ideologies that could threaten Romania’s pro-Western alignment and democratic values. The result also reflects a broader European trend of political polarisation and dissatisfaction with mainstream politics, and Romania’s geopolitical trajectory now hangs in the balance.
Romania shares a 400-mile border with Ukraine and since Russia launched its full-scale land war in 2022, it has enabled the export of millions of tons of grain through the port of Constanta and provided military aid including a Patriot air defence system. However, Georgescu, a Romanian national committee of the United Nations Environment Programme representative from 1999-2012, has called NATO’s ballistic missile defence shield in Deveselu, south Romania, a “diplomatic disgrace”.
Threat to Romania’s pro-NATO, US stance
Georgescu’s promised to end Romania’s “subservience” to the EU and NATO—especially regarding support for Ukraine and NATO’s missile defence system— now represent a potential realignment of Romania’s foreign policy. As such, the result jeopardises the country’s reputation as a stable, pro-Western democracy and risks alienating international partners and deterring investors. Next month’s second election round could deepen that divide.
On Sunday evening Georgescu said: “the rich of the system, today, in Romania, have become poorer, and the people, the poor Romanian people, have enriched themselves from this point of view. We have a duty to rebuild Romania and that is the most important.” Calling “the family, the backbone of the Romanian society” Georgescu looked forward to the second round, saying “We were many to vote and will also be many to vote in the second round.”
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Lasconi wrote on Facebook on Monday morning: “To all those who voted for me, thank you for your mobilisation and trust. Your vote was not for me, but for the future of you and your loved ones, for whom I promise to do my best.”
Crisis for pollsters
The blame game began as soon as Sunday’s election results rolled in; with Romania’s press, political institutions, and intelligence services accused of inflating Georgescu’s candidacy to weaken Simion, and failing to address Russian election meddling, allowing him to ascend unchecked.
The result also exposed the weakness of exit polls, which had projected Ciolacu as the frontrunner, followed by Lasconi. Voter turnout was consistent with the previous election at 51%.
On Sunday evening, Romanian Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu said “Today the Romanians have confirmed that the Social Democratic Party is the main political force of Romania. We thank all the Romanians who voted for the Social Democratic Party, and also to those who did not choose the Social Democratic Party!
“I understood exactly the answer we have towards Romania. It is an important signal that the Romanians have sent to the political class. Let’s continue to develop the country with European money while protecting our identity, national values and faith,” Ciolacu added.
Romanian democracy rocked by anti-NATO candidate’s success
The Romanian presidency gives the head of state control over not only prime ministerial appointments but also defence spending. Georgescu, a virtual unknown who doubled his predicted vote last week, has urged an end to the Ukraine war and claimed that Romania would benefit from “Russian wisdom” in its foreign policy.
The intervening week had been one of soul-searching and finger-pointing for the Romanian political establishment, namely the centre-left PSD and centre-right PNL. The following day, the evening after the election, 25 November, over 1,000 people gathered in Bucharest, praising Europe and chanting, “Putin, don’t forget, Romania is not yours”.
The average Romanian voter has reasons to cast a protest vote: the country has the EU’s highest inflation, the highest proportion of people “at risk” of poverty and its largest budget deficit. Meanwhile the far-right has stoked fears that the Ukraine war could spill over the border unless the country halts its support.
EU summons TikTok over possible DSA breach
However, Georgescu’s ostensibly no-budget campaign has raised suspicions of Russian interference, and shocked observers as the strong and strategic ally of NATO, the EU and the US appeared to have fallen into the orbit of Russia.
On Thursday 28 November, Romania’s presidential office – the country’s top court – ordered the national election office to “recheck and recount all valid and invalid ballots”, and may annul the presidential election result, amid allegations of illegal electoral activity around the campaign of Elena Lasconi of the pro-EU, centre-right USR.
One court official complained of “massive exposure due to preferential treatment” on TikTok, which the Chinese social media platform has dismissed. If the second, runoff election round goes ahead on 8 December, Georgescu will face Lasconi in a vote with huge geopolitical implications.
After Romanian authorities raised “various irregularities” regarding the presidential election first round on Sunday 24 November, the European Commission (EC) met Romanian officials and representatives of digital platforms, including TikTok.
The EU’s Digital Services Act guards against election meddling, and in October the EC requested that TikTok clarify its measures to avoid the manipulation of information and “mitigate the risks related to elections”. Tiktok said it had removed 88 advertisements related to non-regular political content. However, the ads had already over 3mn views, Politico notes.
Rumours cited by the Brussels-based website Politico suggest that the EU is considering fining TikTok millions of euros. However, this is unlikely to come into effect before Romania’s upcoming third election weekend.
Some clarity emerged on Monday, 2 December, as Romania’s Constitutional Court reversed its decision to hold a recount of the 24 November ballot, confirming Georgescu as the winner.
“The judges have unanimously decided to… confirm and validate the result of the first presidential round on 24 November and holding the second round on 8 December,” Romania’s chief judge Marian Enache said.
Outgoing president Klaus Iohannis said Sunday’s vote would decide whether Romania would remain “a country of freedom and openness, or collapse into toxic isolation and a dark past”.
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