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After a slow start to the year, investors have shaken off inflation worries and regained courage. But the Dax isn’t really getting going. No wonder, there are many sources of risk. Among other things, the precarious situation in the Middle East conflict is fueling fears of a new supply chain crisis.
The mood on the stock market continues to rise and fall with the hope of falling interest rates. Although the inflation rate has recently increased again in both the euro area and the USA, investors continue to rely on an early easing of monetary policy. Are they not misjudging themselves?
“The key interest rates will probably only be lowered later and probably not as massively as investors had dreamed of at the end of 2023, writes LBBW equity strategist Uwe Streich, looking at the latest data from the price front. Expert Markus Reinwand from Helaba also believes that the interest rate cut expectations have now gone a bit over the target. “There could be disappointments from this perspective in the coming months.”
In addition, new supply chain problems are causing nervousness in the financial markets. The escalation on the Red Sea, where Iran-backed Houthi rebels from Yemen are threatening international shipping, has recently driven up oil prices. The situation brings back memories of the crisis situation during the corona pandemic, when traffic jams formed in front of container ports and freight rates shot up sharply.
Investors also focus on the quarterly balance sheets of companies on both sides of the Atlantic. The first is the USA, where the investment banks Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, among others, are presenting their figures this week. On Thursday, the German sandal manufacturer Birkenstock, which launched on the US stock exchange with great fanfare in November, will provide insight into its books.
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