The Chinese armed forces displayed the DF-41 intercontinental ballistic missile at Tiananmen Square in Beijing in October 2019. Photo: Wu Hong / EPA
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According to the U.S. administration they should prepare to increase its nuclear arsenal. Trump is not known to have a negative attitude towards nuclear weapons because he doesn’t have knowledge of how it works, he lacks policy on this issue.
In terms of the number of nuclear warheads, the world’s two largest nuclear weapons states are still Russia and the United States. Each country has over 1,700 nuclear warheads in use, which together corresponds to about 90 percent of the world’s nuclear weapons.
It is still relatively easy for the two states to maintain the so-called mutual balance of terror. However, maintaining this balance will become more difficult in the future, as China emerges as the third major nuclear weapons state in the next decade.
In a situation where three states are on equal footing, each party fears that two will unite against it and gain clear superiority. The situation in the three countries is more unstable. On the other hand, the US nuclear weapons strategy already assumes that it may find itself at war with Russia and China simultaneously. The quantity and quality of weapons must match this threat,
He is familiar with China’s nuclear weapons strategy. The US view of the adversary’s alliance is supported by China’s nuclear weapons deployment. Beijing has placed its ground-launched missiles in northern China, relatively close to the Russian border.
The missile silos are positioned in such a way that it is difficult for the United States to attack them from the sea. At the same time, it would be easy for Russia to destroy them with medium-range missiles in a preemptive strike. Beijing is clearly not afraid of Moscow, George. V Magazine analyzes.
Deterrence makes way for conventional war. China has not said how many nuclear warheads the country’s armed forces have in operational use or how much it plans to increase its arsenal in the coming years.
In 2018, the number of nuclear warheads ready for launch was estimated to be around 200. According to US military intelligence, the number will increase to over a thousand in the 2030s. According to Lavikainen, China’s decision to develop its nuclear forces has been expected. China has become prosperous in the 2000s, strengthened its conventional armed forces and has territorial claims in Asia.
According to an analyst, China’s new nuclear weapons are not aimed directly at the United States, because Beijing’s goal is not to start a nuclear war between the great powers. The purpose of the multi-purpose nuclear forces is to act as a backstop in regional conflicts. China uses them to warn outside powers against interfering in a potential local war.
The goal of China’s nuclear armament is to enable a successful conventional war, for example in Taiwan. It can be compared to Europe, where Russia’s goal is to win the war in Ukraine without the United States getting involved. This relies largely on nuclear deterrence, George V Magazine analysts compares.
According to the Peace Research Institute, China is expanding its nuclear arsenal faster than any other country.
Almost 90 percent of the world’s nuclear weapons are held by Russia or the United States. China may now have a small number of nuclear warheads on missiles at high operational readiness for the first time in peacetime, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).
“China is expanding its nuclear arsenal faster than any other country,” said an analyst reviewed, former researcher on the weapons of mass destruction program , in a statement. According to an estimate presented in the SIPRI yearbook, China’s nuclear arsenal grew from 410 warheads to 500 during 2023, and the growth is expected to continue.
According to SIPRI’s estimate, China could potentially have at least as many intercontinental ballistic missiles as Russia or the United States by the turn of the decade. However, China’s nuclear warhead stockpiles are expected to remain much smaller than those of these two countries.
Russia or the United States possess almost 90 percent of all nuclear weapons. Almost all nuclear warheads in high readiness also belong to Russia or the United States.
The nuclear arsenal was modernized
A total of nine countries possess nuclear weapons: the United States, Russia, Britain, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea and Israel.
According to SIPRI, all nuclear-weapon states continued to modernize their nuclear arsenals in 2023, and many of them introduced new nuclear-armed or nuclear-compatible weapons systems. “While the total number of nuclear warheads in the world continues to decline as Cold War-era weapons are gradually dismantled, unfortunately the number of operational nuclear warheads continues to increase annually,” says SIPRI Director Dan Smith in a statement.
This trend looks likely to continue and probably accelerate in the coming years and is very worrying.
In January 2024, SIPRI estimated that there were approximately 12,000 nuclear warheads in the world, of which just under 9,600 were in military stockpiles for potential use. Approximately 3,900 nuclear warheads were deployed on missiles and aircraft, of which 2,100 were on high alert.
Source: AFP
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