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One in four members of Generation Z in Ireland will not have children by the age of 45. According to a new report from Dublin’s Iona Institute an organization that promotes marriage, freedom of conscience and religion in society.
Generation Z generally refers to people born between 1997 and 2012.
Based on cohort data from the Human Fertility Database (HFD), as well as demographic models, the institute’s report entitled “Choice or Circumstance? Rising Childlessness in Ireland , ” published in May, shows a sharp increase in the number of Irish women who are childless.
Among women born in the late 1950s, only 30.9% were childless by age 30. In contrast, among those born in the early 1990s, the figure rose to 63.6%. This trend suggests that 25% of women born in the late 1990s will reach age 45 without children.
Breda O’Brien, from the Iona Institute, told EWTN News that “the big question is whether this will happen by choice or by circumstance.”
“Much of it will be unplanned and imposed by circumstances, such as the cost of living,” she said. “It’s worrying, and we’re heading in that direction without much debate. Before the 1930s, we had similar rates of childlessness in Ireland, but that was due to extreme poverty, late marriages, and low marriage rates. We’re supposed to be living in a time when women have every possible choice.”
She continued: “The possibility of having children, which is fundamental, is being taken away from young women. It’s presented as a kind of freedom. I don’t think young women themselves see it as a form of freedom, and I think many are worried about it.”
According to data from the Central Bureau of Statistics , the average age of men at marriage is currently approaching 38 years, while that of women is around 36.
A 2022 survey by Amarach Research for the Iona Institute showed that 85% of people want to have at least two children, while only 2% expressed a desire to have none.
According to the Central Bureau of Statistics, births in Ireland have declined by almost 18% over the past decade.
With clear evidence that the longer parenthood is delayed, the less likely a person is to have children, O’Brien pointed out that this is part of the rise of individualism and the idea conveyed to young people from a young age: “Get your education, travel, build your career, have fun, don’t commit too much, and then maybe in your thirties, think about settling down. But many women, as they reach their mid-thirties, discover that it is increasingly difficult to conceive.”
He added: “The fertility industry is booming, which shows that people are willing to go to extraordinary lengths to have children, but the lifestyle they’ve been presented with actually goes against their own best interests. Nature doesn’t know this life script that’s being offered to young people.”
“The longer you postpone it, the greater the chances of miscarriage, complications during childbirth, and the need for medical interventions at birth, if it comes to that. It is not a decision without consequences,” she stated.
O’Brien told EWTN News that society needs to discuss the reasons for this phenomenon. “It’s a reality we should discuss much more broadly if our goal is to help people achieve their life goals. Among people of faith, children, family, and marriage are still given priority. The Catholic Church must support these young families in every way possible.”
He also pointed out that having fewer children “has very significant social and economic consequences due to the effects of population aging and increased loneliness.”
The report highlights a number of demographic problems related to both the lack of children and the aging of Ireland’s population. Low fertility rates, combined with the growing number of childless people, mean that the ratio of working-age adults to dependent elderly people will continue to deteriorate. Fewer births today will mean fewer workers in 20 or 30 years.
O’Brien commented: “In Ireland there is still a certain respect for older people, but one of the most worrying potential consequences is that young people may begin to resent them.”
The Iona Institute report underlines that a smaller working-age population will have to support an ever-growing elderly population, which will put increasing financial pressure on pensions, the healthcare system, and long-term care.
The findings also highlight the impact on housing and household formation. An increase in adults who never have children increases the demand for smaller homes and single-person households.
Furthermore, in recent decades, immigration to Ireland has been an effective and economically rational response during periods of high labor demand. However, it does not constitute a solution to the problem of childlessness.
O’Brien pointed to the demographic changes that other countries with increasingly aging populations are already facing.
“Other countries are further along this path than we are. South Korea and even Japan are converting daycare centers into senior care facilities; shifting from producing infant formula to fortified beverages for the elderly; and from manufacturing diapers to producing incontinence products for the elderly. This is not a positive path we are taking,” he concluded.